Publications

The papers available in PDF format. You can conveniently print the papers in their original format using the Acrobat Reader. The reader can be downloaded for free; it takes about 5 Mb on the hard disk once installed.

In this article, we examine least-cost strategies for reaching the greenhouse gas emission reductions specified by the Kyoto protocol for three Canadian provinces, Ontario, Quebec, and Alberta. We analyze four scenarios, each specifying a certain level of cooperation (i.e. of trading of emission permits and of electricity) between the provinces. To effect these analyses, four MARKAL models (one for each province and one for the US) are used in a multi-regional framework that endogenizes energy and permit exchange levels and prices. The US model is included in the analysis in order to correctly simulate the important natural gas market between Canada and the USA. The results indicate that both permit trading and electricity exchanges are capable of significantly reducing the direct costs of abiding by the Kyoto protocol. The paper also includes an analysis of the the main policy issues faced by the three provinces while planning for a concerted effort to abate GHG emissions.

  Download the paper in PDF format

In this paper, we use the multi-region version of a detailed bottom-up model, MARKAL, to explore avenues for reducing the cost of GHG abatement in North America through energy and emission trading. The setting of the study is the recent Kyoto Protocol, of which Canada and the US are signatories. We consider two alternate levels of Joint Mitigation, the first within North America, the second broadened to include a non-Annex I country, India. Results indicate overall savings of up to CDN$53 billion (NPV over a 40 year horizon) with North American cooperation, and of about CDN$385 billion when India is included. Inter-regional exchanges and energy policy implications in each region are discussed in some detail.

  Download the paper in PDF format

Classical stochastic programming has already been used with large scale LP models for long-term analysis of energy-environment systems. We propose a Minimax Regret formulation suitable for large scale linear programming models. It has been experimentally verified that the minimax regret strategy depends only on the extremal scenarios and not on the intermediate ones, thus making the approach computationally efficient. Key results of minimax regret and minimum expected value strategies for Greenhouse Gas abatement in the Province of Québec, are compared.

  Download the paper in PDF format

Future patterns of climate change and economic growth are critical parameters in long-term energy planning. This paper describes a multi-stage stochastic programming approach to formulate a flexible energy plan. The plan incorporates multiple future scenarios and provides for mid-course corrections depending upon the actual realizations of future uncertainties. Results are derived from the stochastic version of Extended MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) model for Québec, developed for this purpose. The analysis indicates significant savings of overall system cost in using a hedging strategy over any of the perfect foresight ones. With a fifty percent probability of implementing stringent carbon mitigation measures after fifteen years, the emission trajectory takes the middle path till this uncertainty is resolved. Prior to resolution, electricity supply follows the middle path, natural gas and renewable energy tend to follow the low mitigation trajectory, and oil supply approaches the high mitigation trajectory. A set of specialized hedging technologies has been identified, which emerges more competitive in the hedging strategy than in any of the perfect foresight ones. The paper concludes that such treatment of future uncertainties can give insights that are beyond the scope of an analysis based on deterministic scenarios.

  Download the paper in PDF format

This paper describes two variants of the Indian MARKAL model, a long-term technology oriented optimisation model for energy-environment planning for India. The first variant uses stochastic programming to include future uncertainties in the analysis. Details of model formulation, results and sensitivity analysis are described here. The second variant uses an innovative approach to simulate price sensitive demands within a linear formulation. The analysis incorporating future uncertainties suggests that it is prudent to reduce carbon emission in anticipation of a global regime in future. Modelling with price elastic demands estimates up to ten percent reduction in carbon emission due to reduced demands, under a severe carbon tax.

  Download the paper in PDF format

This paper describes an advanced bottom-up approach for modelling the energy-environment sector to study greenhouse gas abatement. Three new features are described which give significant new capabilities to this class of models. These are: endogenization of end-use demands which allows computation of partial equilibria in energy markets; modelling future uncertainties using multi-stage stochastic programming; and, combining several bottom-up models as a multi-region model to explore issues of co-operation and burden sharing. Each of these new features is illustrated by results taken from large scale Extended MARKAL models of Québec and Ontario. The focus of the paper is on the nature of issues which can be addressed by this methodology, rather than on specific conclusions drawn from the discussed examples. We believe that a very promising avenue of research lies in exploring the role of multiple advanced bottom-up models in the integrated assessment of climate change.

  Download the paper in PDF format

This paper reports the use of an advanced Multi-region Bottom-up model, the Extended MARKAL, for an in-depth investigation of the responses by the Québec-Ontario energy system to a series of increasingly severe Greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. For each target, the responses are analyzed under four policies resulting from the adoption or not of a joint emission target and of electricity exchanges. Results indicate significant cost savings and a reduction in the need for nuclear energy in Ontario, which suggests that cooperative responses to GHG emission caps should be seriously considered by the two provinces. The explanation of complex systemic responses underscores the advantages of using detailed bottom-up models. Results are highly credible and of immediate relevance to the policy makers. The present analysis can be readily extended to at least four Canadian provinces for which separate MARKAL models already exist (i.e. Alberta and Saskatchewan, in addition to Québec and Ontario).

  Download the paper in PDF format

The purpose of this document is to introduce the potential users to the new features of Extended MARKAL, stochastic programming and multiple region capability, developed at GERAD (Group for Research in Decision Analysis). It is also meant to help the new user in using the stochastic and/or multi-region features of the model and in producing tables and reports of his/her choice. Familiarity with the standard MARKAL and MUSS has been assumed. At present, the software operates through the FoxPro (2.0) command window. The graphs are plotted by a VB module in EXCEL (7.0). This document comprises two parts: Part A describes the operation of stochastic programming feature to include multiple scenarios, and the multi-region capability. The report writer is described in Part B.

  Download the paper in PDF format